2020 and beyond
June 2007
Hans Daanen and Keri Facer, Futurelab
The full version of this report is available to download in pdf format – see box below - or you can order a free hard copy. On this page you'll find the report's introduction, as well as some of the useful links listed at the end (skip down to links).
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Introduction
At the present time the UK education system is witnessing a rash of crystal ball gazing. The Education 2020 report provides a vision for personalised learning for the next 13 years; the Building Schools for the Future programme is engendering debates about the institutions and structures of schooling for the next 50 years; and the 21st century curriculum reviews at QCA are generating discussions about the purpose and function of education for the next 100 years. These discussions are not restricted to the UK; since the late 1990s nation states around the world, and international organisations such as the OECD and UN, have been exploring the future of education in the 21st century.
This publication is intended to challenge and disturb some of the assumptions underlying these discussions by reviewing current predictions about the development in capacities of digital technologies between now and 2020.
In producing this brief paper, we want to ask the questions:
- To what extent are we prepared, as a society and as educators, for the massive changes in human capabilities that digital technologies are likely to enable in the next 13 years?
- To what extent are our future visions for education based upon assumptions about humanity, society and technology that are no longer valid?
- To what extent can we, as educators, help to shape the developments of technology in order to enhance human development?
Predicting the future, of course, is notoriously unreliable. We only have to look back to the 1970s to witness the prediction that only three computers would be required worldwide, for example; or to the 1960s to witness predictions that we would shortly be living on the moon in fetching silver jumpsuits. The pace of technological change is both more rapid than we can ever predict, and monumentally slower than we had thought possible. This is not only because it is sometimes harder to achieve the breakthroughs that we had intended, or indeed easier because developments in one fi eld unexpectedly assist researchers in another (think of the implications for human genomics of the massive increase in computer processing power over the last ten years).
It is also because technologies enter into already existing social spaces – they are shaped by the existing social practices, human interactions and values that they encounter outside the laboratory. Again, we only have to look to the history of the record player to see how social practice can transform a technology – this device was originally intended as a personal recording machine rather than a replay tool which would spawn an entire industry and transform musical practices around the world.
Why, then, should educators consider some of the current predictions for developments in digital technologies?
If educators are to shape the future of education (and not have it shaped for them by external technical developments) it is crucial that we engage with developments in digital technologies at the earliest stages. We need to understand what may be emerging, explore its implications for education, and understand how best we might harness these changes. Without this early engagement we risk, as always, being the Cinderella sector of the technology
world – constantly receiving the hand-me-downs from the business, defence and leisure industries and then trying to repurpose them for educational goals. Without this early engagement, we also risk designing educational practices and approaches that will be rendered obsolete and anachronistic in the context of new human-technological capabilities.
As Douglas Adams once observed, “the best way to predict the future is to build it”. We need to know the building blocks available to us as educators in the near future in order to know how we might use them and develop them for education.
Useful links
Personal devices
www.research.ibm.com/cross_disciplines/p_systems.shtm
www.research.ibm.com/WearableComputing
www.equator.ac.uk
research.microsoft.com/sds
Intelligent environments
www-dse.doc.ic.ac.uk/Projects/UbiNet/GC/index.html
www.specknet.org
robotics.eecs.berkeley.edu/~pister/SmartDust
en.wikipedia.org/
en.wikipedia.org/
Computing infrastructure
The network
www.ambient-networks.org
www.
cfp.mit.edu/index.html
Processing
www.intel.com/research
www.research.ibm.com/journal/sj43-1.html
www.hpl.hp.com/research/issl/projects/index.html
www.xenoservers.net
Storage
www.pdsi-scidac.org
www.memoriesforlife.org
research.microsoft.com/sendev/projects/sensecam
www.dssc.ece.cmu.edu
Security
www.trustedcomputinggroup.org
en.wikipedia.org/
domino.research.ibm.com/comm/research_teams.nsf/pages/
secure_systems_department.index.html
www.hpl.hp.com/research/ssrc/security
Interfaces
www.technologyreview.com/BioTech/17842
dukemednews.org/news/article.php?id=69
www.cs.washington.edu/homes/pshenoy/BrainControlledRobot.html
donoghue.neuro.brown.edu
www.intel.com/research/dpr.htm
www.cs.cmu.edu/~claytronics
www.intel.com/research/exploratory/essential/physicality.htm
vecg.cs.ucl.ac.uk
www.dwrc.surrey.ac.uk/Home/tabid/36/Default.aspx
www.jhu.edu/news/audio-video/medical_robotics.html
www.cbs.mpg.de/MPI_Base/NEU/Arbeitsgruppen/Gruppen/
Gruppe_07/Untergruppe_01
Comments jump to form
As a teacher of digital arts 'Mediaonics' I am very frustrated with the educational heirarchy who preach innovation and ask for risk takers to look into the future with regards to the use and imapact of new technologies on classroom practice. When one makes a real effort to break new ground your find youself tied into a system of bureaucracy that cannot impliment change in less than 5 year timescales. Also the colleges of further and higher education need to get off their high horses and realise that students of a much younger age are getting to grips with high level technologies and conceptual thinking. The gap between secondary education and higher education in this field is extremely wide and getting wider. The links now between micro technolgies and arts/music technologies are also undermined in the system due to the closed shop of my department./ your department mentality. There are no deparemental borders when it comes to real collaborative learning. Reading other comments about the future of educational practice I agree with the notion of blasting many old theories out of the window and looking for that brave new world. I fear however, that we can talk and discuuss all we want but the real brokers of change only look to their own agendas, power houses and profit and gain. Until things take off from the ground up little of any significance we reall y happen in the classroom. And yes We will become the Cinderella,s of the revolution.
Thanks for an intriguing paper, as always. I'm interested that one of the parts you didn't really include (but which I know you all know about) is the level of social and collaborative input into these technologies. In the scenarios you describe, they still seem fairly top-down imposed. It's likely that school-age children are, of course, going to continue to have these kinds of things imposed upon them by adults - parents, governments, teachers, etc. - but I think the aspects of collaboration, collaborative education, sharing and tagging of data, etc. are equally enormous for education. Perhaps more so than the technology that enables this.
Culturally, within education, we are used to the idea of the individual and that individual's performance. Perhaps the biggest shift over the past few years has been one that values small individual contributions to a greater purpose (open-source, social networks, sustainability, etc.). Can we have an open-community, an educational Flickr or Digg, and still impose a hierarchy? Wikipedia is a model of that kind of hybrid. It's thinking about what social changes that technology creates, rather than the technology in itself, that worries me most - educational institutions need to let go of about 200 years worth of practice. I think we might, in the end, see something much more like the Ancient Greek dialogues in the end, ironically.
One of the predictions that I disagreed with is in the areas of computing infrastructure, though my opposition to the notion is based on geography rather than technology. The concept is theubiquitous nature of computing that they see in 13 years time. Their vision refers to wireless universal personal computing, the continuous flow and access to personal high bandwidth data whether at home, while travelling, at friends houses and, of course, at work. Conceptually, I accept that in countries like the UK with a high population base and density, this level of computing and connection is possible, but for countries like New Zealand with a lower population density and wider geographical dispersal, I suspect that like the provision of broadband internet, we would be well behind in this aspect.
One element of the report that really struck a chord with me was this....
Educational computing is based on the hand me downs from business, defence and leisure sectors. We have repurposed the tools to suit ourselves and in many cases the use of computers and information technology in schools is designed to meet the needs of employment rather than to enhance education. How many of the schools we work in provide computing courses to prepare their graduates for employment. Most. Is this a bad thing? No, but what about focusing on information technology for enhancing education.
Increasingly, schools are "integrating" the use ofICT into the classroom as a medium for education. But, how many pieces of software or virtual environments are developed just for schools? How many companies would invest the same amount in their educational solutions as they would in their business solutions? Does Microsoft? What about Apple? Is Sun shining in this regard?
The paper sets a challenge about education engaging in developing practices, approaches media and mediums to meet this future, rather than us having it set for us which in many cases is the current mode ofICT adoption.
Are governments investing in the development of educational systems to support the needs and nature of 2020? Its only 13 years away!
See myblog entry: www.bloglines.com/blog /andrewch